NATIONAL COLLEGE ATHLETIC ASSOCIATION MEDIA CONFERENCE

March 14, 2005

Bob Bowlsby

BOB BOWLSBY: I slept exceedingly well. Thank you for asking.

BOB BOWLSBY: Well, I think in large measure, the teams that were left out were compared to those who got in. The portfolios were not as good. Now, I think the MAC carved each other up a little bit in terms of record. Some of the records are better than others, but we had 70 teams with 20 wins going into this. So, you know, as much as people feel like a 20-win threshold is one that you need to get over, it doesn't always work out that way. You know, we look at road record and we look at RPIs, and we look at how they're playing in the second half of the year. Unfortunately, we have to get the field to 65. When we compared the remaining members of that conference with others who got in the tournament and with others who didn't get in the tournament, we just felt like there were other institutions that had better bodies of work.

BOB BOWLSBY: It's very difficult. And I think one of the things that we always try to avoid is comparing one so-called mid-major with another so-called mid-major. We really want -- the typical situation we get into is that we have eight to 12 teams remaining in a pool, and maybe we have three or four slots left, so we go ahead and try and look for ways to distinguish between and among institutions whose resumes look very much alike. You know, sometimes it's -- we eliminate somebody by virtue of the fact that they had a very poor non-conference schedule. At other times, somebody will get in because it's obvious that they have made every attempt and played a tremendous schedule. Sometimes a road record would make a difference. If you had an exceptionally good record, it might demonstrate you're a little cut better than other people that look just like you. You know, those kinds of things are extremely difficult. It's among the most difficult parts of the process because, you know, you can play yourself out of a bad seed if somehow you're on the wrong line or you don't think you're where you should be, but you can't play yourself into the tournament if you're not selected. That really is one of the harsh elements of it.

BOB BOWLSBY: No, we don't do any match making. We didn't notice it or at least it didn't come up in discussion until after we began looking at the bracket. But we don't match make in the first round or any other round. As much as we are sometimes accused of preparing made-for-TV games or matching up particular coaches or particular institutions, that's never done. It's sheer coincidence and luck of the seeding structure.

BOB BOWLSBY: Absolutely. We would never attempt to put that game together, nor would we do anything to avoid it if that's the way the seeding and bracketing fell.

BOB BOWLSBY: I think that's a real good question and we frequently have discussions about that sort of thing. When you get right down to it, every institution is in the Big-10 tournament -- I mean, the NCAA tournament right now with the exception of the Ivy group where they don't play a post-season tournament. When you get into the conference tournament, you play until you lose. In that regard, it's very much like the NCAA tournament. I don't know that we're ever going to prepare ourselves to go and have an all-comers tournament. It's difficult to do that. There are those who advocate that the NCAA tournament ought to be the 64 best teams. But I think the allure is really in some of the surprising match-ups and big upsets. There are a lot of people around this country that can play the game of basketball, and they deserve to have some access to the tournament. You know, it is always out there as a topic of some discussion, but I haven't heard any substantial traction heading that way.

BOB BOWLSBY: Another how many teams?

BOB BOWLSBY: Well, we haven't ever looked at it from that standpoint. But, you know, a 64-team bracket, it plays itself out well through, you know, multiples of four. I don't know if there have been any substantive discussions about it. I think whatever number you put on it, somebody's going to get in and somebody's going to get left out.

BILL HANCOCK: The ticket manager is in the room. LJ Wright.

LJ WRIGHT: There have been no further sell-outs, but tickets are strong and steady at the sites where we have remaining tickets.

LJ WRIGHT: Those are Nashville, Indianapolis, and Syracuse.

LJ WRIGHT: I think it is probable.

BOB BOWLSBY: The poll that I think you're referring to is the ESPN USA Today coaches poll. I don't think there are any particular negatives on Louisville. I think they've had a tremendous year and I think they've done a tremendous job. They were the regular-season champion in Conference USA, which is the ninth-ranked conference in college basketball. That's a little lower than that conference has been in the past. Then they also won the post-season. You know, when you look at who's on line 3, Kansas, Arizona, Gonzaga and Oklahoma, I'm not sure who you're going to move off line 3 in favor of Louisville. Gonzaga has a head-to-head win over Washington and Oklahoma State. They can arguably make a case for line 2. The Big-12 regular-season champion is on line 3. The PAC-10 regular-season champion is on line 3. And Kansas was largely expected to be a 1 or 2 seed at the lowest, and they have struggled a little bit at the end of the year. Also on line 4 with Louisville is the SEC tournament champion in Florida, and the runner-up in the east division. BC was the co-champion of the Big East. And Syracuse is the champion of the Big East post-season tourney. I don't think there's anything negative about Louisville. Our RPI has Louisville in the mid teens in terms of their RPI. So, you know, the middle of line 4 is about where our numbers indicate, and also just subjectively, I'm not sure who you'd take off of line 3 to put Louisville up there.

BOB BOWLSBY: Well, I think their non-conference schedule was 111, which isn't terrible, but it's not at the top of the country either. They played seven institutions that had RPIs of 113 or higher, including four that were over 225. I think that plays into it. But when you look at the conference rating, it's the aggregation of all of the schools in the league. The ones that are at the bottom influence Louisville and Charlotte and Cincinnati and everybody else. As I say, I don't think there's anything negative about Louisville whatsoever. But we don't spend a lot of time looking at the polls. A few years ago, Gonzaga was sixth in the national poll, and our RPI and our comparative information ended up yielding them a 6 seed. There were some questions about that. But the committee works off of numbers that are not based in any part on national polls. As I say, when you look at the -- Louisville went in as the second seed on the fourth line. They're in the No. 14 position. That's exactly where their RPI is. As I say, I don't know which one of those people on lines 3 or 2 we would take off of there in favor of Louisville. They're an awful lot alike, the people that are also on line 4. While it may have been a surprise to some, it looks to me as if they're seeded about where they belong.

BOB BOWLSBY: Well, it isn't our responsibility to level their playing field. The conferences make their own decisions as to what days they play. It's difficult enough to separate this field and seed it and bracket it without eliminating two days of the tournament. We especially have problems with leagues like the SEC where we are trying to separate those teams through the regional finals. It is just not something that is feasible. You know, to be frank about it, the conferences make the decisions as to what days they're going to play their tournaments. The teams play two days apart throughout the season. Whether it's Sunday/Thursday, that's four days. But, you know, we've got a lot of moving parts on this thing. That sort of accommodation just isn't feasible.

BOB BOWLSBY: Southeastern Conference is No. 5 this year in our RPI.

BOB BOWLSBY: Both are much lower than they've been in the past. We have gotten -- other than the two items that you noted, we've gotten very little in the way of comments. I think the committee did a very good job. We went over and over and over this thing. We worked hard to make sure we got it in the right order and that the right people were in. You know, unfortunately it's a zero-sum game. Some are going to get left out and some are going to be in. But that last group of schools that had access to the tournament, those that stayed in and those that were out, we looked at them very carefully, looked at them from a variety of different perspectives. I'm comfortable that the right institutions got in. I think we did a very capable job of seeding it. I think the general lack of negative feedback is indicative of the institutions' and the fans' general satisfaction with what we've done.

BOB BOWLSBY: I've caught up my email a couple of times today. We're pretty well level with it right now. I've probably done, oh, a dozen radio or TV spots over the last 24 hours. The areas you identified are the ones. You know, but I think when you explain why Louisville was where they are, I think people understand. Nobody's had an answer for me yet as to who you take off of line 3 in favor of Louisville. I've had some conversations about the MAC access. You know, I think some of it is just like a block charge call. Reasonable people can always disagree on it. Whichever way you call it, somebody's going to be unhappy.

BOB BOWLSBY: Well, I don't know that I am going to be inclined to characterize when they got in. But I think the committee has had St. Mary's under their surveillance for the second half of the season. It's obvious that they've had a good year. They've played some people. You know, they had wins over California and over Air Force and have worked hard with their program. They got a win over Gonzaga. I think that they're a very capable team. They beat a UNLV team that ended up in the semifinals of the Mountain West. You know, St. Mary's is -- I think those kinds of institutions always worry whether or not their numbers are good enough. But they've got 23 wins, and we felt like they were a team that did the things we were looking for.

BOB BOWLSBY: The weighted RPI worked very well for us. What it was intended to do is highlight for us those institutions that were going on the road and playing games, those that were winning on the road and those that were not defending their home floor. As we know, two-thirds of Division I games are decided in favor of the home team. This was intended to be a refinement to our calculation methodology that would highlight those features. It did that very well. We used it to compare against the original RPI. It made some things more readily apparent than they might have been under the previous system. So we feel like it was a capable tool for us and we haven't had any discussions on whether or not there will be refinements down the road. But it's something we talk about every year. So, anyway, it's -- you know, we looked at how far some of the weightings varied from the original RPI. Most of them were probably two to six places difference. There were some that were as high as 22 and as far negative as 12 or so... I think, you know, we wanted to see why those variances occurred. And as we got into it, what we found was it was reflecting just exactly what we were hoping it would be reflect - those that went on the road and played, those that played larger numbers of road games, and those that defended their home floor. It's just one tool we use, but it's one that in its original form and in its weighted form continues to provide the service we're seeking.

BOB BOWLSBY: No, I don't have any personal preference. I probably wouldn't develop one until I had a chance to talk with some of the other committee members. I think we will definitely stay using the weighted as one of our tools because it's just another thing that allows us to do a better job. And, you know, there was speculation this was going to somehow skew the number of mid-majors that are in the tournament. I think you can see from this year's field that we have about the same number of so-called mid-majors that we've had in previous years.

BOB BOWLSBY: No, I'm sorry if you misunderstood what I said. We had 70 teams with 20 wins. I didn't mention that as a benchmark. I just mentioned it as an observation. We just had a lot of teams that had had successful seasons.

BOB BOWLSBY: Well, I haven't observed that as a pattern. I think you look at all the elements of the MAC schools, and I don't want to spend too much time on it, but that conference, all but four of the schools that are involved in the conference have RPIs of 50 or higher, including a 240, a 264, a 280 and 117. So, you know, when half the conference has RPIs up in those areas, it affects the rest of the people in the conference. There isn't any question about that. But, you know, you had a Kent State team a few years ago that played its way deep into the tournament. I happen to think that Ohio is a good team. We certainly looked hard at Miami and Buffalo, and actually Akron and Kent and Western Michigan all started out on our watch list as we went into the weekend, as well. I think there are a lot of teams in that conference that can play. They kind of carved each other up a little bit. But ultimately when we came down to evaluating the group that comprised the last teams to get in and the first teams to be left out, in the collective opinion of the committee, there were better teams. That's the way they voted. Now, I would also suggest to you that some of the upsets that we had over the weekend probably would have made a difference in enough spots that some additional teams would have gotten in, and I would think particularly Miami and probably Buffalo would have gotten serious consideration for those spots.

BOB BOWLSBY: It depends on, you know, if you're talking about the ACC, I think you're talking about a group of schools where all of their ratings percentage indexes are in double digits, and most of them in single digits. That's a different matter than some other groups. I mean, there are conferences that are really very competitive and carve each other up that all of the RPIs in the league are over 200. Just because they have great competition in their league doesn't mean they rise to the level of accessing the tournament except on an automatic qualifying basis.

BOB BOWLSBY: I don't think any elaboration is required. It was a pure luck of the draw, and that's the way the bracket went together. I'll just reiterate, we don't ever match make. We don't ever put TV games together. We just -- that isn't even a consideration. The reason they got paired up is because that's the way the bracket worked out best.

BOB BOWLSBY: Well, Northern Iowa was among that group of 10 to 12 that I mentioned were in the pool that went in at the end. There were some people in all strata of college basketball that went in. I recused myself from the discussion in the voting on Northern Iowa because I was there at one time. So I don't know all of the discussion that went on. But I think basically the Missouri Valley is the eighth rated conference out of 31. Northern Iowa played a pretty competitive schedule. It was in the top hundred in the country. They competed well. They had some wins over the best teams in the conference, in Wichita State and Southern Illinois, although they did lose to Creighton twice. When we got down to comparing that group that included 10 to 12, they were one of the ones that were in and others were out. You know, that's the hard decision we're charged with making.

BOB BOWLSBY: Well, I didn't have anything to do with any of the three getting in. Somebody else should run for governor (laughter).